With the Inflation Reduction Act out of the Senate and on its way to the House of Representatives for a likely up-or-down vote by the end of the week, Democrats and Republicans running for re-election this fall already are trying to define the $739 billion measure to their advantage.
Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-7th, says the spending package represents a breakthrough on one of the issues that matters most to her – allowing the federal Medicare program to negotiate prices on prescription drugs and capping the annual out-of-pocket cost for seniors at $2,000.
“This is truly, truly life-changing for some many people I represent,” she said in an interview on Monday, the day after the Senate passed the spending package on a 50-50, party-line vote broken by Vice President Kamala Harris.
It’s why Spanberger, facing a challenge from Republican Yesli Vega in a new congressional district rooted in Northern Virginia, took the political risk last fall to appear with an increasingly unpopular President Joe Biden at a rally in Culpeper County.
“This is what we talked about – the price of prescription drugs,” she said.
But for Rep. Bob Good, R-5th, whose district now includes part of Hanover County and outlying counties around the Richmond metropolitan area, the new spending package is a mockery of its name.
“The Democrats once again prove they would fail High School Economics,” Good, a conservative who faces Democrat Josh Throneburg in November, tweeted after the Senate vote. “And they have also misnamed this disastrous legislation. More accurately it is the Inflation Expansion Act or the Energy Prices Will Skyrocket Act or the IRS Harasses Taxpayers Act.”
The bill’s spending to combat climate change with investments in renewable energy and paying for it with stronger IRS enforcement against tax scofflaws already are talking points with Republicans. The question Democrats face in the looming midterm elections is whether the bill lives up to its name.
“I don’t know what parts of this are intended to reduce inflation,” said Chris Saxman, a former Republican state delegate who now serves as executive director of Virginia FREE, an influential business advocacy organization that focuses on state politics and lawmaking.
Saxman, who also served as transition director for newly elected Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, acknowledged that the prescription drug package is “a great vote for Democrats,” but said even it faces the same political test: “It still has to bring down inflation.”
Both of Virginia’s senators, Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, voted for the bill because they said it would help curb the rise in inflation and reduce the deficit, while making a $369 billion investment in clean energy and loosening federal restraints on oil and natural gas production.
“I think that is a more balanced approach,” said Warner, who played a big role in making tax policy changes on the fly to satisfy the concerns of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., a potential Democratic holdout, while ensuring that the bill raised enough revenue to pay for its ambitions.
He also continued to negotiate privately with Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., who had appeared to dash Democratic hopes of a long-sought spending compromise in mid-July, only to unveil a deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-NY, at the end of the month that is close to becoming law.
According to an account published Sunday by Politico, Warner was drenched in a rainstorm while negotiating with Manchin on the West Virginian’s houseboat anchored along Washington’s Potomac riverfront. He left wearing some of Manchin’s clothes, but got his suit back, pressed, the next day.
“It was exhausting. It was sausage making. It had been 18 months of work,” Warner said, referring to efforts to initially pass the $2.2 trillion Build Back Better package that ultimately failed because of opposition by Manchin and Sinema.
“You could taste it,” he said in an interview on Monday, the day after the vote. “It would have been crushing if we had left yesterday without getting it done.”
Now, the Inflation Reduction Act moves to the House, where Rep. Don Beyer, D-8th, expects the Rules Committee to take steps on Thursday night to limit amendments to few or none for an up-or-down vote on Friday that’s likely to be straight down party lines. Democrats don’t want to make changes that could cause their fragile alliance in the Senate to fall apart.
“There can’t be a narrower victory,” Beyer said. “You can’t risk it.”
For Beyer, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, the bill represents a historic investment in protecting the environment by promoting renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gases from automobiles and other sources.
“In terms of dealing with climate change, this is the most important thing that’s been done since climate change became an issue,” he said.
As an automobile dealer in Northern Virginia for nearly 50 years, Beyer sees the bill as a way to make electric vehicles more affordable, help bring down the high prices of new and used cars and ultimately reduce reliance on gasoline.
“Anybody who owns an electric vehicle hasn’t had to suffer through $5 [a gallon] gasoline prices,” he said. “They’re never going back.”
The average gasoline prices have fallen more than $1 a gallon in Virginia since a peak in mid-June, but Democrats know their chances of maintaining narrow majorities in Congress depend on inflation subsiding, especially at the pump, while boosting Biden’s popularity with voters.
“I’m all for lower gas prices and higher presidential approval,” joked Beyer, who faces a challenge from Republican Karina Lipsman in November.
The Inflation Reduction Act gives Democrats a chance to show they can get things done in Congress – a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, a compromise on gun safety, and now big investments in clean energy and health care, including maintaining federal subsidies for health insurance premiums under Obamacare.
“There’s something for every Democrat to sell, particularly in competitive states and the competitive districts,” said Larry Sabato, president of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
For Sabato, the proposed climate change investments are “the most important thing for the Earth, but for the average person, it’s Medicare negotiating the price of prescription drugs.”
Saxman doesn’t think most voters care about the legislation Democrats have passed with their majorities. “I think politicians overestimate the enthusiasm for passing legislation,” he said.
Sabato thinks that depends on how Democrats communicate what they’ve accomplished.
“They’ve got the raw material to win,” he said. “Will they communicate it in a way that helps them win?”
One challenge is clear for Democrats, Sabato said: “They have to show progress on the inflation front.”
